March 13 – This week in Kigali, Rwanda, in and round its Congress, FIFA will talk about proposals to alter the opening group phases of the 2026 World Cup from three to 4 groups. Mario Guajardo and Alex Krumer, enterprise and economics professors at universities in Norway are specialists in learning codecs and schedules for sports activities competitions. They analyse a few of the choices out there to FIFA.
Since FIFA introduced the 2026 World Cup is to function 48 groups organized in 16 three-team teams, numerous criticism has been raised by followers, media, and researchers. Crucial one maybe being the doable collusion within the remaining recreation of every group.
A notable instance of this is named the ‘Shame of Gijon’, the notorious recreation between West Germany and Austria in 1982, the place a win by one or two objectives for West Germany would qualify each groups at expense of Algeria. West Germany gained 1:0, however each groups had been accused of match-fixing as a result of after the primary purpose was scored, neither of them tried to alter the consequence.
Since 1986, the World Cup has featured teams of 4 groups, with the final two video games of every group taken place concurrently. Clearly, two simultaneous video games inside a bunch will not be doable if the group consists of three groups, opening alternatives for a brand new Shame of Gijon.
After a lot criticism to this three-team group construction and in mild of an exhilarating group stage in Qatar 2022, FIFA officers have signaled that the 2026 World Cup may function 12 teams of 4 as an alternative of 16 teams of three groups.
It has been anticipated that an hypothetical match of 12 four-team teams could be organized with a ‘2×24’ format, that’s, in two parallel halves the place every half would observe the 24-team format of the World Cups held between 1986 and 1994. This is able to imply 104 video games, a significantly bigger quantity than the 64 video games performed in Qatar 2022 and the 80 video games within the initially introduced format of 16 three-team teams.
In designing the match, necessary standards ought to take into account that the occasion doesn’t delay for much longer than a month (29 days in Qatar 2022 and 32 days in Russia 2018). Additionally, the gamers ought to relaxation not less than three days between consecutive video games, and a equity criterion ought to be sure that two opponents relaxation the same variety of days earlier than they face one another. Additionally, the knockout stage ought to promote steadiness, which means that every part of the bracket ought to have the identical variety of group winners and runners-up.
The ‘2×24’ format is, sadly, topic to numerous imbalances, because the spherical of 32 would pair some group winners with finest third-placed groups, different winners with runners-up, and a few runners-up with one another. As well as, with two parallel halves, the allocation of groups to teams would mechanically dictate that many groups may by no means play towards one another earlier than a possible remaining, in distinction to the present format, the place a priori each staff has an opportunity to fulfill one another earlier than the ultimate.
Thus, it turns attention-grabbing to investigate which different codecs ought to FIFA take into account if the following World Cup options 12 four-team teams. Why not teams of 4 groups, however the place each staff performs two as an alternative of three video games within the group stage? Or why not a knockout stage with a 24-team bracket as an alternative of a 16-team or 32-team bracket?
Two group video games, 16-team bracket.
Aiming at shortening the variety of video games, the video games inside a bunch is perhaps organized as a quadrangular as an alternative of a spherical robin, as it’s utilized in seashore volleyball. On this format, each staff of the group performs solely two as an alternative of three video games.
The primary spherical has a pre-determined allocation such that the best pre-tournament rank within the group performs towards the bottom rank, whereas one other recreation options groups which can be ranked second and third. Within the second spherical of the group stage, the winners of the primary spherical play towards the losers of the primary spherical.
The highest two groups from every group qualify to the knockout stage. The perfect eight winners of the group stage qualify on to the final 16 stage, whereas the remaining qualifying groups (4 different group winners and 12 runners-up) would play a qualification stage. Then, the eight winners of this qualification stage advance to the final 16 stage, the place they be part of the eight finest winners of the group stage. From there, the match is identical single-elimination format used at present within the World Cup. Notice {that a} comparable method is used within the NFL playoffs and within the World championship of curling, the place one of the best performing groups play one spherical lower than the opposite groups within the knockout stage.
This format options 72 video games, which could be comfortably scheduled in 31 days, securing a good variety of relaxation days for the gamers in between their video games. It additionally eliminates the chances of collusion, creating incentives for all groups to win all their matches.
Specifically, your entire group stage would have one thing at stake, so there aren’t any useless rubbers. The format would additionally safe that no staff performs greater than seven video games throughout the match. On the unfavourable aspect although, some groups could be eradicated after taking part in solely two video games throughout the group stage, as within the 16 three-team teams format initially introduced by FIFA.
Three group video games, 24-team bracket.
This format is predicated on the present design of the World Cup, the place every staff performs three video games within the group stage and the highest two groups qualify to the knockout stage of the match.
Following the present design, winners and runners-up from totally different teams could be paired as traditional (A1 vs B2, A2 vs B1,…, K2 vs L1), which ensures steadiness. From there, it resembles the standard single-elimination construction, however as there could be 24 groups within the knockout stage, we have to make some adjustment earlier than deciding on two finalist groups. We are able to make this adjustment proper earlier than the ultimate, which means that there could be phases of 24, 12, and 6 (as an alternative of 16, eight, and 4 as it’s within the present format).
After the three winners of the spherical of final six are recognized, the finest winner qualifies on to the ultimate, whereas the opposite two play in an “additional semifinal”. The winner of this recreation qualifies to the ultimate, whereas the loser is ranked third. Thus, this construction eliminates the necessity of the third-place recreation, usually thought to be the sport no person needs to play.
This format options 95 video games, which could be scheduled in 31 days, whereas securing a good variety of relaxation days for the gamers. Notice the variety of video games is diminished compared to the 104 video games within the ‘2×24’ format, whereas nonetheless offering all groups with three video games throughout the group stage. One of many finalists although must play eight as an alternative of seven video games, however the “additional semifinal” is probably going so as to add fairly a bit of pleasure in the direction of the decisive phases of the competitors.
This format additionally will increase incentives for all of the groups, as a result of each recreation turns into necessary for outlining one of the best staff that qualifies to the ultimate with out taking part in the “additional semifinal” (recall Brazil and France performed with substitute gamers of their final group recreation within the Qatar 2022 World Cup towards Cameroon and Tunisia, respectively).
We are able to consider many variants of the above codecs. For instance, a hybrid between these two may function a bunch stage of two video games per staff, adopted by a 24-team bracket within the knockout stage. Alternatively, as an alternative of an “additional semifinal”, after the spherical of 24 groups has been performed, we may rank the 12 winners and promote one of the best 4 winners on to the quarterfinals, whereas the remaining eight winners are paired into 4 qualification video games in a pre-quarterfinal spherical.
Whereas it’s clear that 12 four-team teams would assist lowering the danger of collusion of the 16 three-team teams initially introduced by FIFA, our evaluation signifies that there are a number of alternate options to beat the disadvantages of the ‘2×24’ format. Thus, the dialogue on the FIFA Congress mustn’t solely concentrate on the variety of teams and groups per group, but additionally on what ought to be the precise format of the competitors as to function a World Cup with 12 teams of 4 groups.
Mario Guajardo is Professor within the Enterprise and Administration Science school at NHH Norwegian Faculty of Economics, https://www.nhh.no/en/staff/school/mario-guajardo/. Alex Krumer is an Economics Professor at Molde College School, https://www.himolde.no/personer/os/vit/alkr/index.html, with a specialism within the economics of sports activities.